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The impact of emerging technologies on future air capabilities

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Abstract

This study aims to assess technology developments to 2025, and how they may impact on future air capabilities, in order to better inform Air Force long range planning activities. A number of US studies address similar issues; with one assessing the impact in the context of an "alternate futures" approach and the development of a value model. The generic Air Force capabilities of Awareness, Reach, Power and Support are used in this study to assess potential impacts of technological developments.

Executive Summary

This study aims to assess technology developments to 2025, and how they may impact on future air capabilities, in order to better inform Air Force long range planning activities. A number of US studies address similar issues; with one assessing the impact in the context of an 'alternate futures' approach and the development of a value model. The generic Air Force capabilities of Awareness, Reach, Power and Support are used in this study to assess potential impacts of technological developments. Technology trends and their rate of advance are influenced by many drivers including: cost, commercial imperatives, military requirements, capabilities, integration, leverage, environmental issues and public sentiment. Technological developments with potential to impact on future Air Force capabilities include: computing power, communications, microelectro-mechanical systems (MEMS), nanotechnologies, uninhabited air vehicles (UA V), hypersonic systems, artificial intelligence, human factors, energy weapons (including laser and electromagnetic pulse), sensors, materials, simulation and modelling. Sensors may move from single to multi-mode, as well as multi- and hyper- spectral systems. Application of composite and metal matrix materials may become more common, with emphasis on lower cost, lightweight, strength, heat and damage tolerance and 'smart' materials possessing self- monitoring and healing capabilities. The application of a technology requires considerable foresight and often the concomitant development of other technologies. The world wide web, which is revolutionising the way we communicate information, uses known and relatively mature computing and communications technologies. For Awareness, high capacity communications systems could be based on lasers, millimetre wave, high capacity fibre lines and satellites. Developments in millimetre wave sensors, laser radars, synthetic aperture radars (SAR), focal plane arrays (FP A), multimode as well as multi- and hyper- spectral sensors, artificial intelligence and data fusion technologies could, together with communications and countermeasures technologies, contribute to timely and high confidence situation awareness. Major technology influences on Reach capability include propulsion systems emphasising higher power to weight ratios, faster and stealthy (including missiles) airframes, lighter and stronger airframe materials and incorporating smart sensors with adaptive and self-healing capabilities. Reach systems include aircraft, VA Vs and spacecraft. Increasing emphasis on air breathing ramjet and scramjet technologies would enhance Reach capability. More accurate missiles with tunable high energy density explosives, and with hybrid and hypersonic propulsion systems would contribute to Power capability. Such high speed systems could have stand-off ranges in the order of 750 nmiles and incorporate multi-mode and imaging seekers. Overall, in weapon system technology the emphasis may move from the delivery platform to the missile possessing greater speed, stealth, an integrated seeker system and stand-off range. Developments will continue in directed energy weapons, such as high energy laser systems and electromagnetic pulse, with fielded systems available in the short to medium term. High energy laser systems designed initially for theatre ballistic missile defence may operate at ranges greater than 400 km from its target. Uninhabited combat air vehicles (UCA V) would be capable of high maneuverability and employ small high performance missiles in the combat role. Estimated lower operating and support costs, compared to manned aircraft, would lead to savings over the lifetime of the aircraft. Countermeasure capabilities will be drawn from a number of technologies including computing, laser, signal processing, information systems and stealth. Support capabilities may be enhanced by advances in training, emphasising immersive environments and tailored training regimes. A consideration of human factors will be a key part of capability planning, with the human and machine viewed as an integrated entity. Direct voice input and eye movement control techniques may be adopted in the short term, while EEG techniques, allowing a 'think-shoot' capability, may be feasible in the longer term. Simulation technologies continue to develop and may include synthetic environments incorporating computer generated forces. Smart self monitoring and healing systems would allow the adoption of a replacement for cause philosophy, leading to greater system availability and reduced support costs. Technological developments will have significant implications for air Force planning activities, and embrace areas of command and control, operations, simulation and training, logistics and acquisition. Concepts such as information warfare, network centric warfare and command and control would be enabled by the synergistic application of a variety of technological advances. Technological developments should be revisited regularly to assess trends as well as the robustness of the futures planning methodology being applied.

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